Population data and projections
State and regional population projections
Note: Based on input data available in April 2005. Comparable with statistical local area population projections, 2005 release.
NSW State and Regional Population Projections 2001-2051, 2005 release [PDF] - provides an overview of the population projections, together with analysis of the trends in each region and details of the method and assumptions for the preferred series. Also included is information about alternative scenarios.
Preferred series (Excel spreadsheet) - provides detailed data for each of the 16 regions, by single years of age and sex for the years 2004 to 2051 (for the State, Sydney Statistical Division and the Greater Metropolitan Region) and to 2031 for the remaining regions. It also details components of change (births, deaths and migration).
Preferred series (Excel spreadsheet) - provides a comparison between the preferred series and the 18 alternative scenarios for each of the regions.
Local area population projections
Note: Based on input data available in August 2006. Comparable with State and regional population projections, 2005 release.
NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections 2001-2031, 2005 release [PDF] - summarises the population change and age structure for each statistical local area in the State in 2001 and 2031. It includes a table of projected total population for 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031.
Summary NSW SLA population projections, 2005 Release (Excel spreadsheet) - displays summary data (preferred series) for individual statistical local areas.
Detailed NSW SLA population projections, 2005 Release (Excel spreadsheet) - provides detailed data for each of the 16 regions, including projected totals and projections by five-year age groups and sex for the years 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031. Also included are sex ratios, growth rates and dependency ratios.
Methods used to prepare population projections
In preparing various projection models, a series of assumptions are made about future patterns of fertility, mortality and migration, which are largely informed by historical patterns. Changes in social policy, planning strategies, behaviour or the economy are likely to affect any set of assumptions. In keeping with this advice, a number of alternative projection scenarios (in addition to the preferred series) are produced for the State and regional projections.The projection totals for some regions, for example, may differ from the population levels planned for in the NSW Government's metropolitan strategy and regional NSW strategies. This is because these strategies may contain proactive measures to encourage growth not in place at the time that the demographic projections were produced.
Technical paper [PDF] - outlines the methods used to derive the 2005 release State, regional and statistical local area population projections provided by the Department.